Open Thread #39

I made a list of what I call "life gems" - those rare and precious things in my life that were easily introduced and have enabled me to "level up" in the amount of positive impact I create. It's obviously not exhaustive, but I started it ~3 months ago and have been adding to it since as things occur to me.

On motivation:

• The System 1 / System 2 framework

• Audiobooks - I otherwise struggle to get through books (h/t Sarah Morgan?)

• Token payments to an EA friend every time I continue a bad habit or fail to sustain a regular, good habit (h/t Niel Bowerman and Sam Hilton)

• Planning when exactly I will work on tasks so that my current to-do list is always short, otherwise I am tempted to do the quick - and usually less important - tasks in order to shorten the list as quickly as possible (h/t Sam Hilton)

On rationality:

• The 'regression to the mean' phenomenon (h/t Toby Ord)

On practical ethics:

• The idea of astronomical waste (h/t Ben Hoskin and Nick Bostrom)

• The idea that if you're not sure where your meat comes from, the harm of factory farming is so great that you should hardly ever take the chance - this is what first made me a vegetarian (h/t a conversation with Marc Crosby although it may be significant that it was still me who came up with the argument)

• Figures comparing direct suffering caused by various animal foods (h/t Brian Tomasik)

• The implication of the prevalence of r-selected species for wild animal suffering (h/t probably Oscar Horta, David Pearce or Brian Tomasik)

• "A quick test of the assertion that enjoyment outweighs pain in this world, or that they are at any rate balanced, would be to compare the feelings of an animal engaged in eating another with those of the animal being eaten." (h/t Brian Tomasik and Schopenhauer)

• Graphs comparing what we'd be prepared to pay for an extra QALY for ourselves, vs what we actually pay for ourselves, vs what the NHS would pay for others, vs what various HIV treatments/prevention methods cost, vs what deworming costs (h/t Toby Ord)

• The idea that contributing to collective action has value because of the small chance that you tip the balance (h/t Toby Ord)

• The idea that you should choose a cause to focus your career on before thinking about your comparative advantage, because the scale of the differences between causes dwarfs the scale of the differences in your future talents (h/t 80,000 Hours)

• The idea that doing good now through donating and direct work at the expense of investing in yourself long-term implies a surprisingly low confidence in the altruism of your future self (h/t Robin Hanson)

• The idea that the way you evaluate a startup is different from the way you evaluate an established organisation (h/t Rochelle Harris and CEA)

On normative ethics:

• The realisation that deontology and virtue ethics collapse into consequentialism much more easily than one of the other ways around

On metaethics:

• The argument that "If nihilism is true, it doesn't matter what I do, so I might as well assume it's false." (h/t DanielLC)

On teamwork:

• The notion of having a 'blaming mindset' - giving it a bad name helps me to recognise and stop it (h/t Adam Freeman)

• The notion that everyone is just fighting a hard battle (h/t Will Jefferson and Ian Maclaren)

On my social life:

• The notion of permanent singlehood as a lifestyle choice

On money:

• An awareness of the risks of developing expensive new habits / increased standards of living i.e. huge future expense for temporary boost in happiness thanks to the hedonic treadmill

On everything:

• Committing to weekly reviews with someone else that include the question "How can we improve this process?" (h/t Niel Bowerman and Sam Hilton)

It's a good exercise. It helps you have more realistic expectations of how much future self-improvement you can expect, or how often you will be able to really help someone else improve. The content is interesting too, as indications of what efforts you and others could make to help someone else become more impactful.

Hi, I´d like to share a full post about a potential of cost-benefit prioritization projects in developed countries. I´m heavily involved in EA, but a newbie to this forum, so need karma points. Here is a link to the planned post, if you think it´s relevant, like this comment :)

https://www.scribd.com/document/373093413/Prioritization-in-a-Developed-Country

I've written up some notes from EA Global London – anyone who attended (or indeed spoke at) the conference should feel free to add/edit!

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v5DDS90tCFe6EbxEzR7G6CCkDjcHoYXzcXuaVtGNdcQ/edit?usp=sharing

Hi all, Liv here (REG co-founder). I've just joined the forum for the first time and don't have enough karma to post in the main thread yet, but hopefully someone very well-versed in climate change intervention rankings will see this:

I'm looking for feedback on the following prioritisation list http://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank

This list is being referenced by a potentially very high impact and well-intentioned individual I'm in conversation with, but it IMO it contains a number of surprises and omissions. Does anyone have a more EA-vetted ranking of interventions they could direct me to? Feel free to PM me, thanks.

Hi, I'm planning a post on finding relevant literature (I'm a librarian), as well as using reference management software to save time. Does anyone have any great suggestions for places they go for academic writing on EA-related topics, or for datasets? I'm thinking things beyond Google Scholar/Arxiv/JSTOR. All input valued.

Are you looking for more mods? I'd be happy to help out.

LW 2.0 now exists. It's still in beta, with a significant number of bugs left to fix and many features that haven't been added yet, but at some point it will become stable enough that it would be reasonable to consider switching. I'm curious what people think about this? Just thought that I'd flag this now.

Hey! I've written a post about prioritising between different worldviews (as Open Phil calls them), using expected-value/expected choice-worthiness calculation. It would be nice if you could 1) give me feedback 2) like this post if you think I should be able to post this on the forum.

Thanks everyone :)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E2JF9mqDiMS4Q-QQd8TnWUwNmMC9uoym2p3x7W7rhGA/edit?usp=sharing

Hi, I've written an article on climate change but I don't have enough karma points to post. Below I've written the abstract of my paper and I was hoping to get enough karma points to post the full article.

This paper will discuss the impact that climate change has had on the Earth. The issue of climate change has become a huge problem because of the continued campaigns to spread misinformation to the public. Climate change has been affecting the world’s ecosystems, and if nothing is done to fix this issue, various species of animals and plants will become extinct. Although the extinction of some species has already occurred, it is believed that if people work together to limit Earth’s current temperature increase to 1.5˚ Celsius, the rapid extinction of species and devastation of ecosystems will become stabilized. In this paper, some possible solutions to the rapid climate change are also discussed. Keywords: climate, change, global, warming, natural, human

Thanks for taking the time to read this

There are many important limitations to the direct impact of teaching, that 80,000 hours note in their teaching career review here https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/teaching/

However, after some reflection, I think that this review underestimates some of the potential for impact through teaching, especially in terms of providing opportunities to promote effective altruism.

I have created the document below (which is still a work-in-progress) primarily with the intention of using it to discuss ideas with other teachers, and potentially advise them on opportunities for high-impact activities that they can do. It is quite anecdotal and impressionistic, and is not intended (at least in its current format) to be comprehensive, but more to spark ideas about how to make your impact greatest within a teaching career.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JViIzFzBbepiaoO2x17ubIG0JTHB20HSHOVoSNDSogM/edit

To some extent, it's useful to have being a teacher / social worker / doctor as good examples of where direct impact isn't as important as it might seem, but I still think we need to be fully open and honest about the full range of possibilities that these career paths open.

I'd be grateful if people had a read through the list and share any thoughts / give feedback! Do people agree with the basic premise that teaching and education might be more promising career areas for having a positive impact than have previously been suggested by 80K (and in Doing Good Better etc), especially when used as a platform for EA community building and advocacy? Are there any specifics that people would challenge, or add to?

The goal of this post and discussion is that a) if people here agree, 80K might slightly adjust their advice to reflect these ideas, b) although I don't see it as a priority for my own time, for those who are determined to focus their careers and efforts on education, it might be useful to flesh and out and develop this document with greater evidence, analysis and examples.

Personal background: as a UK-based history teacher who only started reading very much about EA ideas in January 2017 (after completing my PGCE course and teaching professionally for about half a year), reading 80k advice has had a massive effect on how I think about and plan my own career. I am now seeking to work directly for effective animal advocacy organisations. Nevertheless, I believe that working in education has potential for higher impact than has been assumed.

Hello!

I'm a student and iOS developer and I'm fairly new to the EA community. I'm willing to offer some of my time pro-bono in helping to build iOS apps for EA-related projects. Please let me know if there are any projects that you know of that require help in this field, via comments or messages!

Thanks!

Hi guys, I wanted to make you aware of a global online debate on the governance of AI by a Harvard-incubated think-tank.

For background, I’m a French EA, and I recently decided to work on AI policy as it is a pressing and neglected issue. I’ve been working for The Future Society for a few weeks already and would like to share with you this opportunity to impact policy-making. The Future Society at Harvard Kennedy School is a think tank dedicated to the governance of emerging advanced technologies. It has partnerships with the Future of Life Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.

The think-tank provides an participatory debate platform to people all around the world The objective is to craft actionable and ethical policies that will be delivered in a White Paper, to the White House, the OECD, the European Union and other policymaking institutions that the think-tank is working with.

Because we know AI policy is hard, the idea is to use collective intelligence to provide innovative and reasonable policies. The debate is hosted on an open source collective intelligence software resulting from a research project funded by the European Commission, technologically supported by MIT. It’s based on research on collective intelligence, going from open and exploratory questions to more in-depth discussions. Right now, we are in the “Ideation” phase, which is very open. You can make constructive answers and debate with other people who are also interested in crafting AI Policies with instant translation.

The platform is like an online forum articulated around several issues, both short-term and long-term oriented. You have six themes, including “AI Safety and Security”, “Reinvent Man & Machine Relationship” and “Governance Framework”.

So far, most of the answers have been very constructive. But with you guys… it can be even better.

Because you are EAs, I really wanted to pick your brains!

It would be great if you guys could participate, on the topic you’re most interested in, knowing that a) it will be impactful b) you will be able to challenge your thoughts with other people passionate about AI social impacts. Of course, you don’t have to talk about AI safety if you’d rather focus on other topics.

Also, the more EAs, the merrier. Or rather, the more impactful!

So please connect on the debate, and participate!!

Debate is here

Has anyone read the 80000 hours pdf? On page 12 I'm not sure how they arrived at the figure that a single individual needs $40000 of individual income. They say in footnote 9 that it comes from the fact that in an average household, the first single individual accounts for 1 out of 2.5 people, but then they say that using this approximation that individual requires about 53% as much as a typical household. Shouldn't it actually be 1/ 2.5 = 40% as much?

What do folks here think about the political views of Noam Chomsky? I ask because he is a strict global cosmopolitan thinker on foreign policy. And global cosmopolitanism is a central part of EA. Do any seasoned members of this site have an opinion?

I'm thinking about radically more secure computer architectures as a cause area.

1. Radical architecture changes are neglected because it hard to change computer architecture
2. Bad Computer security costs a fair amount at the moment
3. Having a computer architecture that is insecure is making it hard to adopt more useful technology like Internet of Things.

I'd be interested in doing an analysis of whether it is effective altruistic cause. I'm just doing it as a hobby at the moment. Anyone interested in the same region want to collaborate?

Do you know of organisations, that take donations, and that are at least to some extent dedicated to the building and maintenance of roads in poor regions?

The only organisation that i have found that at least somewhat falls into this category is the german organisation welthungerhilfe.

--

Background:

I believe that the role of a proper road system is strongly underappreciated in development aid. What arteries are to the human body, roads are to a continent. The arteries transport all the different nutrients and elements that are required by the human body to all its different locations; similarly roads transport all the various goods of a continent to where they are needed.

If the road systems are in poor shape, so is the economy; as a result there is poverty. Roads in africa, for example, are often so bad that it takes hours just to drive a few kilometers. A good road system, however, widens the markets; trade can develop, which again spurs motivation, specialisation, innovation and ultimately living standards.

As a result I have been looking for organisations that are dedicated at least to some extent to the set up of good road systems in poor regions.

--

Relevant links:

• 12.000.scripts.mit.edu/mission2014/solutions/roads-in-sub-saharan-africa
• amazon.com/Role-Transportation-Industrial-Revolution-Comparison/dp/B01K94GVWM/ (the review at the bottom of the page gives a good summary)
• csr21.org/content/reporting-west-africa-where-are-road-building-ngos

Hi everyone!

I'm new to EA, but after reading 80,000 Hours and Doing Good Better, I'm eager to incorporate these ideas into my life. I find it amusing that I discovered EA shortly after getting accepted into medical school, since doctors have often come up as the prototypical example for being counter-intuitively ineffective. I don't think this is unrelated to the lack of fulfillment and jadedness that many doctors eventually come to experience, and I've since been consumed by the desire to find a promising way to avoid this trap. I think EA offers a compelling perspective, one which gives me inspiring and explicit suggestions for directing my time and resources.

At my school, we're required to conduct an independent research project on any medically-related topic of our choosing by the time we graduate. I've decided to use this as an opportunity to delve deeper into EA as it relates to my future career as a physician, and ideally, to form connections with individuals who can help me towards my altruistic goals in the future. Some topics I've considered include examining the ways that physicians make a difference other than earning to give, identifying the different metrics by which to measure a physician's impact, and interviewing specific physicians who accomplish impactful goals. As you've probably already noticed, these topics are extremely broad, and I was hoping that members here might offer suggestions for specific research questions that I could investigate - ideally something that is as of yet under or unexplored. While I've read many great suggestions on how to navigate careers, I'm interested in learning more about how this applies to the practicing physician. I would also be interested to hear from/about doctors who have chartered their own unique path towards making a difference, challenging the typical template for what a medical doctor looks like. Any ideas would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks,

Michael

The recent quality of posts has been absolutely stellar*. Keep it up everyone!

*interesting, varied, informative, written to be helpful/useful, rigorous, etc

I've posted about an approach to AGI estimation.

I would love to find collaborators on this kind of thing. In London would be great.

Hi everyone.

I've been thinking about the potential effectiveness of lobbying for legalisation of psychedelics (whether individually or as part of a total legalisation of drugs) or the effectiveness of encouraging their use, legal or not, in terms of increasing the empathy of a population (and therefore their likelihood of becoming EAs).

Given their reputation for making people more open to new ideas, psychedelics could significantly bolster the number of people who agree with and act on EA principles.

Does anyone know of any research into anything related / any good articles on this?

Hi.

Given recent absurd temperatures in the Arctic, I've never been less sure than I am now that the human species even can avoid an early and untimely death. For that reason, I am now also interested in continuing the human legacy, once humans as we know them today have disappeared. I assume that no intelligent species exists aside from what we are aware of here on Earth. For the endeavors of the human species to continue after we expire, we need to make sure ourselves that the closest thing to human endeavor continues, and not pin our hopes on something that may not ever find us, exist, or even be interested in reviving us should they find our DNA somewhere.

So, does anybody here know any work I can get involved with that works towards that end? Some thoughts that have interested me so far are uploading human memories and tasks into things and/or robots that don't need food or water and can withstand extreme heat and extreme weather events. (Resilient solar-powered items, for instance, that would do the best things that we would like to see done were we still alive.) I am also interested in merging with and/or shaping the future of the resilient species that are more likely to outlive us.

Any other suggestions? How should I pursue this?

If you put on a donation event, is it better to keep donations for global EA causes, or to tie the event in with a logical charity (art charity for art event, or a local charity). I prefer EA causes, but the event might be weaker since most people don't think in an EA way. I don't want to ruin the good for want of the perfect. What would you do?

Hey all. I have a personal challenge. I'm a student from Iran. And I want to be a more effective altruist. However I'm not sure how. So here are a few points to consider: 1.There are no channels like givewell.org for charities here. And most charities are horrible at best here.

1. As Iran is boycotted, sending money overseas is rather hard and inefficient (though more efficient than local charities)
2. as an student, I have little money to spare (few dollars every week).
3. Also as a double majors student, I have no time time to spare as well. So money is all I can do.

So what can I do?

Is there an Effective Altruism wiki? I found this one: http://effective-altruism.wikia.com/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Wiki but the URL that it asks you to go to doesn't take you anywhere.

I am sorta new to the EA movement. I think contributing to a wiki will help me learn more. Plus as a non-native English speaker trying to improve English writing skills, I think contributing to a Wiki can be useful to me. So where is the Wiki? If not, shouldn't we start one or improve the aforementioned wikia page?

I have a query regarding DALYs which I've been unable to find an answer too, but suspect there is literature on were I more familiar with econ/global health:

By my understanding one of the main advantages of DALYs is that they capture the intuition action in cases like "You may extend either person As life by 5 healthy years or extend person Bs life by 5 mediocre years (lets say they go blind due to the treatment)."

However, there seems to be no way of distinguishing the case where person A and B start of as perfectly healthy and we may help the former more and the cases where B is already blind and we may add "five years at their current state of well-being". This seems to not be ideal.

Is there any talk or use of "marginal DALYs" for want of a better term, where the intervention is considered relative to the previous level of wellbeing? Alternatively, is it simply common practise to use QALYs in the kind of case I am concerned with?

I recently wrote about if generic feedback processes might produce suffering. I'm working on a follow up post now so interested especially in things I didn't address that people would like to see addressed.